Markets › Kalshi › Politics
declare national emergency on Kalshi
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the White House, Federal Register, the President of the United States.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
33% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 6,280 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,695 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 198 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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