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Navitas criminal charges in Argentina on Kalshi

If any party identified in an Argentine prosecutor's formal criminal accusation concerning Sea Lion oil development as Navitas Petroleum LP, Navitas Petroleum Development & Production Ltd., Navitas Petroleum Atlantic United, or a director, manager, or administrator of one of those entities has been formally charged with any crime in Argentina after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
47% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
23¢ (now)1.2¢$2.7024.2%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Argentine prosecutors formally accuse Navitas or its executives over Sea Lion before Jan 1, 2027? · Yes24¢24%1.3¢—47%1,040Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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