Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA 1st Quarter Winner on Kalshi
If neither team wins the 1st quarter of the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
29%
Median YES price across 48 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
58% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.49 | 30.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York wins the 1st quarter · New York | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,016 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Phoenix wins the 1st quarter · Phoenix | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 750 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st quarter · Oklahoma City | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 245 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st quarter · Oklahoma City | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 121 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 87 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Boston wins the 1st quarter · Boston | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 86 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins the 1st quarter · Philadelphia | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 39 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 17 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| San Antonio wins the 1st quarter · San Antonio | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 11 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles C wins the 1st quarter · Los Angeles C | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 9 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st quarter · Portland | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 5 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Los Angeles L wins the 1st quarter · Los Angeles L | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 4 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Miami wins the 1st quarter · Miami | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee wins the 1st quarter · Milwaukee | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st quarter · Portland | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Houston wins the 1st quarter · Houston | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Golden State wins the 1st quarter · Golden State | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Utah wins the 1st quarter · Utah | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins the 1st quarter · Orlando | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins the 1st quarter · New Orleans | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Brooklyn wins the 1st quarter · Brooklyn | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee wins the 1st quarter · Milwaukee | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Memphis wins the 1st quarter · Memphis | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Denver wins the 1st quarter · Denver | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Chicago wins the 1st quarter · Chicago | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Toronto wins the 1st quarter · Toronto | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Boston wins the 1st quarter · Boston | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 1st quarter tie · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| New York wins the 1st quarter · New York | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Cleveland wins the 1st quarter · Cleveland | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Washington wins the 1st quarter · Washington | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 48 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.