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NBA 1st Quarter Spread on Kalshi
If Portland wins by more than 8.5 points in the 1st quarter of the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 78 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
43% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York wins 1Q by over 1.5 points · New York wins by over 1.5 points | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 107 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Boston wins 1Q by over 1.5 points · Boston wins by over 1.5 points | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 42 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| New York wins 1Q by over 16.5 points · New York wins by over 16.5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 40 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins 1Q by over 1.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 points | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 30 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 1Q by over 1.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 1.5 points | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 6 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 1Q by over 8.5 points · Portland wins by over 8.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 1Q by over 6.5 points · Portland wins by over 6.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 1Q by over 4.5 points · Portland wins by over 4.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 1Q by over 2.5 points · Portland wins by over 2.5 points | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 1Q by over 1.5 points · Portland wins by over 1.5 points | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 1Q by over 10.5 points · Portland wins by over 10.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 1Q by over 7.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 7.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 1Q by over 5.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 5.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 1Q by over 3.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 3.5 points | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 1Q by over 13.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 13.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 1Q by over 11.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 11.5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 1Q by over 9.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 9.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 1Q by over 8.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 8.5 points | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 1Q by over 6.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 6.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 1Q by over 4.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 4.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 1Q by over 2.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 2.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 1Q by over 1.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 1.5 points | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 1Q by over 10.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 10.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 1Q by over 7.5 points · Orlando wins by over 7.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 1Q by over 5.5 points · Orlando wins by over 5.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 1Q by over 3.5 points · Orlando wins by over 3.5 points | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 1Q by over 1.5 points · Orlando wins by over 1.5 points | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 1Q by over 13.5 points · Orlando wins by over 13.5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 1Q by over 11.5 points · Orlando wins by over 11.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 1Q by over 9.5 points · Orlando wins by over 9.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 1Q by over 8.5 points · Utah wins by over 8.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 1Q by over 6.5 points · Utah wins by over 6.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 1Q by over 4.5 points · Utah wins by over 4.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 1Q by over 2.5 points · Utah wins by over 2.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 1Q by over 1.5 points · Utah wins by over 1.5 points | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 1Q by over 7.5 points · Miami wins by over 7.5 points | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 1Q by over 5.5 points · Miami wins by over 5.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 1Q by over 3.5 points · Miami wins by over 3.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 1Q by over 1.5 points · Miami wins by over 1.5 points | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 1Q by over 15.5 points · Miami wins by over 15.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 78 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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