What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.73.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NBA 2nd Half Winner on Kalshi

If neither team wins the 2nd half (including overtime) of the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 48 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
51¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.72	52.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Boston wins the 2nd half · Boston	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	4	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	2	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 03:00 UTC
Portland wins the 2nd half · Portland	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 03:00 UTC
Oklahoma City wins the 2nd half · Oklahoma City	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 03:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 02:30 UTC
Houston wins the 2nd half · Houston	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 02:30 UTC
Golden State wins the 2nd half · Golden State	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 02:30 UTC
Utah wins the 2nd half · Utah	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Orlando wins the 2nd half · Orlando	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
New Orleans wins the 2nd half · New Orleans	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Brooklyn wins the 2nd half · Brooklyn	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Milwaukee wins the 2nd half · Milwaukee	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Los Angeles L wins the 2nd half · Los Angeles L	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Memphis wins the 2nd half · Memphis	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Denver wins the 2nd half · Denver	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
San Antonio wins the 2nd half · San Antonio	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Chicago wins the 2nd half · Chicago	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 01:00 UTC
Toronto wins the 2nd half · Toronto	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
Boston wins the 2nd half · Boston	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
New York wins the 2nd half · New York	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
Cleveland wins the 2nd half · Cleveland	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
Washington wins the 2nd half · Washington	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
Indiana wins the 2nd half · Indiana	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Portland wins the 2nd half · Portland	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	0	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Oklahoma City wins the 2nd half · Oklahoma City	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	0	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Sacramento wins the 2nd half · Sacramento	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Orlando wins the 2nd half · Orlando	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	87%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Tie in the 2nd half · Tie	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Phoenix wins the 2nd half · Phoenix	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 48 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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