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NBA Player Triple Double on Kalshi
If Domantas Sabonis records a triple double in the Orlando vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown: Triple Double · Jaylen Brown | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 12,352 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: Triple Double · Jayson Tatum | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 75 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: Triple Double · LeBron James | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 45 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Joel Embiid: Triple Double · Joel Embiid | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 31 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Triple Double · Karl-Anthony Towns | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 29 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: Triple Double · Domantas Sabonis | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Franz Wagner: Triple Double · Franz Wagner | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Damian Lillard: Triple Double · Damian Lillard | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Jrue Holiday: Triple Double · Jrue Holiday | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Donovan Clingan: Triple Double · Donovan Clingan | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Deni Avdija: Triple Double · Deni Avdija | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Triple Double · Giannis Antetokounmpo | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Josh Hart: Triple Double · Josh Hart | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Triple Double · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Triple Double · Isaiah Hartenstein | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Ajay Mitchell: Triple Double · Ajay Mitchell | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Payton Pritchard: Triple Double · Payton Pritchard | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: Triple Double · VJ Edgecombe | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: Triple Double · Tyrese Maxey | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Paul George: Triple Double · Paul George | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Derrick White: Triple Double · Derrick White | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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