Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Threes on Kalshi
If Pelle Larsson records 5+ made three-pointers in the Miami vs Utah Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 305 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
63% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 32¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.38 | 33.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VJ Edgecombe: 2+ threes · VJ Edgecombe: 2+ | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 1,529 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| OG Anunoby: 3+ threes · OG Anunoby: 3+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 948 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 2+ threes · Jaylen Brown: 2+ | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 919 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Desmond Bane: 4+ threes · Desmond Bane: 4+ | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 400 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Toumani Camara: 3+ threes · Toumani Camara: 3+ | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 392 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Bennett Stirtz: 2+ threes · Bennett Stirtz: 2+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 338 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Lauri Markkanen: 6+ threes · Lauri Markkanen: 6+ | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 279 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Josh Hart: 2+ threes · Josh Hart: 2+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 273 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Andrew Wiggins: 2+ threes · Andrew Wiggins: 2+ | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 250 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Mikal Bridges: 2+ threes · Mikal Bridges: 2+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 223 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3+ threes · Tyrese Maxey: 3+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 209 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Lauri Markkanen: 5+ threes · Lauri Markkanen: 5+ | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 164 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 3+ threes · Jayson Tatum: 3+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 152 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Pelle Larsson: 1+ threes · Pelle Larsson: 1+ | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 137 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Paul George: 3+ threes · Paul George: 3+ | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 132 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Joel Embiid: 1+ threes · Joel Embiid: 1+ | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 125 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 5+ threes · Tyrese Maxey: 5+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 111 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Lauri Markkanen: 4+ threes · Lauri Markkanen: 4+ | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 104 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jalen Brunson: 3+ threes · Jalen Brunson: 3+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 60 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Paul George: 5+ threes · Paul George: 5+ | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 59 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 4+ threes · Jayson Tatum: 4+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 55 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Darius Garland: 3+ threes · Darius Garland: 3+ | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 54 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 2+ threes · LeBron James: 2+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 47 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Sam Hauser: 2+ threes · Sam Hauser: 2+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 46 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 1+ threes · Jayson Tatum: 1+ | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 44 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Landry Shamet: 2+ threes · Landry Shamet: 2+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 29 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 2+ threes · Tyrese Maxey: 2+ | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 27 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 3+ threes · LeBron James: 3+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 26 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+ threes · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 24 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Franz Wagner: 2+ threes · Franz Wagner: 2+ | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 23 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Jrue Holiday: 2+ threes · Jrue Holiday: 2+ | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 22 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Ajay Mitchell: 2+ threes · Ajay Mitchell: 2+ | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 21 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Payton Pritchard: 3+ threes · Payton Pritchard: 3+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 20 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 1+ threes · Jaylen Brown: 1+ | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 16 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3+ threes · VJ Edgecombe: 3+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 13 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jalen Brunson: 2+ threes · Jalen Brunson: 2+ | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 13 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Toumani Camara: 4+ threes · Toumani Camara: 4+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 13 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 1+ threes · Karl-Anthony Towns: 1+ | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 11 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 2+ threes · Karl-Anthony Towns: 2+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 11 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Ace Bailey: 2+ threes · Ace Bailey: 2+ | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 4 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 305 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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