Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Threes Protected on Kalshi
If Damian Lillard records 1+ made three-pointers in the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 306 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
61% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey: 3+ threes · Tyrese Maxey: 3+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 176 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Klay Thompson: 4+ threes · Klay Thompson: 4+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 37 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Klay Thompson: 5+ threes · Klay Thompson: 5+ | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 31 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Damian Lillard: 3+ threes · Damian Lillard: 3+ | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 30 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Landry Shamet: 4+ threes · Landry Shamet: 4+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 20 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 2+ threes · Jaylen Brown: 2+ | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 16 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Landry Shamet: 3+ threes · Landry Shamet: 3+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 11 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Jalen Brunson: 4+ threes · Jalen Brunson: 4+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 8 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 3+ threes · Jayson Tatum: 3+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Damian Lillard: 1+ threes · Damian Lillard: 1+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Pelle Larsson: 5+ threes · Pelle Larsson: 5+ | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miles Bridges: 5+ threes · Miles Bridges: 5+ | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miles Bridges: 4+ threes · Miles Bridges: 4+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miles Bridges: 3+ threes · Miles Bridges: 3+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miles Bridges: 2+ threes · Miles Bridges: 2+ | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miles Bridges: 1+ threes · Miles Bridges: 1+ | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jalen Green: 5+ threes · Jalen Green: 5+ | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jalen Green: 4+ threes · Jalen Green: 4+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jalen Green: 3+ threes · Jalen Green: 3+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jalen Green: 2+ threes · Jalen Green: 2+ | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jalen Green: 1+ threes · Jalen Green: 1+ | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Dillon Brooks: 5+ threes · Dillon Brooks: 5+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Dillon Brooks: 4+ threes · Dillon Brooks: 4+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Dillon Brooks: 3+ threes · Dillon Brooks: 3+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Dillon Brooks: 2+ threes · Dillon Brooks: 2+ | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Dillon Brooks: 1+ threes · Dillon Brooks: 1+ | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 5+ threes · Devin Booker: 5+ | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 4+ threes · Devin Booker: 4+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 3+ threes · Devin Booker: 3+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 2+ threes · Devin Booker: 2+ | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 1+ threes · Devin Booker: 1+ | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Collin Gillespie: 5+ threes · Collin Gillespie: 5+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Collin Gillespie: 4+ threes · Collin Gillespie: 4+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Collin Gillespie: 3+ threes · Collin Gillespie: 3+ | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Collin Gillespie: 2+ threes · Collin Gillespie: 2+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Collin Gillespie: 1+ threes · Collin Gillespie: 1+ | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Rui Hachimura: 5+ threes · Rui Hachimura: 5+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Rui Hachimura: 4+ threes · Rui Hachimura: 4+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Rui Hachimura: 3+ threes · Rui Hachimura: 3+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Rui Hachimura: 2+ threes · Rui Hachimura: 2+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 306 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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