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NBA 4th Quarter Total on Kalshi
If over 64.5 total points are scored in the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Orlando vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 52 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th Quarter: Over 64.5 points scored · Over 64.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 62.5 points scored · Over 62.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 60.5 points scored · Over 60.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 58.5 points scored · Over 58.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 56.5 points scored · Over 56.5 points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 54.5 points scored · Over 54.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 52.5 points scored · Over 52.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 50.5 points scored · Over 50.5 points | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 48.5 points scored · Over 48.5 points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 46.5 points scored · Over 46.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 44.5 points scored · Over 44.5 points | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 42.5 points scored · Over 42.5 points | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 40.5 points scored · Over 40.5 points | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 66.5 points scored · Over 66.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 64.5 points scored · Over 64.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 62.5 points scored · Over 62.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 60.5 points scored · Over 60.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 58.5 points scored · Over 58.5 points | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 56.5 points scored · Over 56.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 54.5 points scored · Over 54.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 52.5 points scored · Over 52.5 points | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 50.5 points scored · Over 50.5 points | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 48.5 points scored · Over 48.5 points | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 46.5 points scored · Over 46.5 points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 44.5 points scored · Over 44.5 points | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 42.5 points scored · Over 42.5 points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 67.5 points scored · Over 67.5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 65.5 points scored · Over 65.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 63.5 points scored · Over 63.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 61.5 points scored · Over 61.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 59.5 points scored · Over 59.5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 57.5 points scored · Over 57.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 55.5 points scored · Over 55.5 points | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 53.5 points scored · Over 53.5 points | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 51.5 points scored · Over 51.5 points | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 49.5 points scored · Over 49.5 points | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 47.5 points scored · Over 47.5 points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 45.5 points scored · Over 45.5 points | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 43.5 points scored · Over 43.5 points | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 68.5 points scored · Over 68.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 52 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.