Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Assists Protected on Kalshi
If Zach LaVine records 6+ assists in the Orlando vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 204 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hartenstein: 6+ assists · Isaiah Hartenstein: 6+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 74 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: 8+ assists · Isaiah Hartenstein: 8+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 31 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Klay Thompson: 2+ assists · Klay Thompson: 2+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 15 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: 4+ assists · Isaiah Hartenstein: 4+ | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 9 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Payton Pritchard: 4+ assists · Payton Pritchard: 4+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 9 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 4+ assists · Tyrese Maxey: 4+ | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 5 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Joel Embiid: 4+ assists · Joel Embiid: 4+ | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 3 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jalen Brunson: 6+ assists · Jalen Brunson: 6+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 2 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 6+ assists · Jayson Tatum: 6+ | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 2 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Davion Mitchell: 6+ assists · Davion Mitchell: 6+ | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 2 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 4+ assists · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 4+ | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 2 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Zach LaVine: 6+ assists · Zach LaVine: 6+ | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Zach LaVine: 4+ assists · Zach LaVine: 4+ | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Zach LaVine: 2+ assists · Zach LaVine: 2+ | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 10+ assists · Darius Acuff Jr.: 10+ | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 8+ assists · Darius Acuff Jr.: 8+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 6+ assists · Darius Acuff Jr.: 6+ | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 4+ assists · Darius Acuff Jr.: 4+ | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 8+ assists · Domantas Sabonis: 8+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 6+ assists · Domantas Sabonis: 6+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 4+ assists · Domantas Sabonis: 4+ | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 2+ assists · Domantas Sabonis: 2+ | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Keaton Wagler: 6+ assists · Keaton Wagler: 6+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Keaton Wagler: 4+ assists · Keaton Wagler: 4+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Keaton Wagler: 2+ assists · Keaton Wagler: 2+ | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Max Strus: 6+ assists · Max Strus: 6+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Max Strus: 4+ assists · Max Strus: 4+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Max Strus: 2+ assists · Max Strus: 2+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Darius Garland: 10+ assists · Darius Garland: 10+ | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Darius Garland: 8+ assists · Darius Garland: 8+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Darius Garland: 6+ assists · Darius Garland: 6+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Darius Garland: 4+ assists · Darius Garland: 4+ | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Kris Dunn: 8+ assists · Kris Dunn: 8+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Kris Dunn: 6+ assists · Kris Dunn: 6+ | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Kris Dunn: 4+ assists · Kris Dunn: 4+ | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Kris Dunn: 2+ assists · Kris Dunn: 2+ | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Brook Lopez: 6+ assists · Brook Lopez: 6+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Brook Lopez: 4+ assists · Brook Lopez: 4+ | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Brook Lopez: 2+ assists · Brook Lopez: 2+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 6+ assists · Wendell Carter Jr.: 6+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 204 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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