What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NBA City Franchise Expansion on Kalshi

If the National Basketball Association (NBA) officially announces the award of an expansion team franchise to Las Vegas after issuance and before January 1, 2030, the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Governing League, Sports Business Journal, The Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, ESPN, The Athletic, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Pro Basketball expansion awarded before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	1,900	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Pro Basketball expansion awarded before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	553	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Pro Basketball expansion awarded before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	475	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Pro Basketball expansion awarded before Jan 1, 2030? · Before Jan 1, 2030	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Pro Basketball expansion awarded before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Pro Basketball expansion awarded before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	47¢	47%	1.7¢	—	94%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.