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NBA Clutch Player of the Year on Kalshi
If Zion Williamson wins the Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 54 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Tyrese Maxey · Tyrese Maxey | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 452 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Jayson Tatum · Jayson Tatum | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 89 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 21 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Stephen Curry · Stephen Curry | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 21 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Nikola Jokić · Nikola Jokić | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 21 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Luka Dončić · Luka Dončić | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 21 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Jalen Brunson · Jalen Brunson | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 21 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Jaylen Brown · Jaylen Brown | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 21 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Cooper Flagg · Cooper Flagg | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 21 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Zion Williamson · Zion Williamson | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Zach LaVine · Zach LaVine | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama · Victor Wembanyama | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Trae Young · Trae Young | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Tyler Herro · Tyler Herro | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Tyrese Haliburton · Tyrese Haliburton | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Shaedon Sharpe · Shaedon Sharpe | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Pascal Siakam · Pascal Siakam | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Paolo Banchero · Paolo Banchero | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Norman Powell · Norman Powell | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Michael Porter Jr. · Michael Porter Jr. | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Lauri Markkanen · Lauri Markkanen | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: LeBron James · LeBron James | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: LaMelo Ball · LaMelo Ball | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Karl-Anthony Towns · Karl-Anthony Towns | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Kawhi Leonard · Kawhi Leonard | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Kevin Durant · Kevin Durant | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Jalen Williams · Jalen Williams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Jamal Murray · Jamal Murray | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Ja Morant · Ja Morant | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Jalen Johnson · Jalen Johnson | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: James Harden · James Harden | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Jalen Green · Jalen Green | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Joel Embiid · Joel Embiid | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Jimmy Butler III · Jimmy Butler III | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Giannis Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Franz Wagner · Franz Wagner | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Darryn Peterson · Darryn Peterson | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Donovan Mitchell · Donovan Mitchell | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Damian Lillard · Damian Lillard | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Clutch Player of the Year: Darius Garland · Darius Garland | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 54 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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