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NBA Eastern Conference Finals Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Washington qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Philadelphia | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 2,270 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Toronto qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Toronto | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 270 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Milwaukee | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 151 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Boston qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Boston | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 128 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| New York qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · New York | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 69 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Indiana qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Indiana | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 35 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Detroit qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Detroit | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 14 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Orlando qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Orlando | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Washington qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Washington | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Charlotte qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Charlotte | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Chicago qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Chicago | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Miami | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Cleveland qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Cleveland | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Brooklyn qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Brooklyn | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Atlanta qualifies for the Eastern Conference Finals · Atlanta | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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