What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.38.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 4% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NBA Player Threes Escalator on Kalshi

If Each Yes contract pays per made three-pointers recorded by Toumani Camara in the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026. Each 1 made three-pointer increases the payout by the following schedule: 0 threes, $0.0000; 1, $0.0010; 2, $0.0080; 3, $0.0270; 4, $0.0640; 5, $0.1250; 6, $0.2160; 7, $0.3430; 8, $0.5120; 9, $0.7290; and 10 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 28 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

7% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Payton Pritchard player threes escalator · Payton Pritchard	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	220	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Jalen Brunson player threes escalator · Jalen Brunson	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	32	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
Devin Booker player threes escalator · Devin Booker	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	5%	27	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Karl-Anthony Towns player threes escalator · Karl-Anthony Towns	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	22	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
Paul George player threes escalator · Paul George	5¢	5%	0.4¢	—	11%	18	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Zach LaVine player threes escalator · Zach LaVine	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	17	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Jayson Tatum player threes escalator · Jayson Tatum	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	16	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Damian Lillard player threes escalator · Damian Lillard	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	15	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Tyler Herro player threes escalator · Tyler Herro	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	11	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
Tyrese Maxey player threes escalator · Tyrese Maxey	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	6	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Toumani Camara player threes escalator · Toumani Camara	5¢	5%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Donovan Clingan player threes escalator · Donovan Clingan	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Deni Avdija player threes escalator · Deni Avdija	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player threes escalator · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Darius Acuff Jr. player threes escalator · Darius Acuff Jr.	5¢	5%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Desmond Bane player threes escalator · Desmond Bane	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	15%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Miles Bridges player threes escalator · Miles Bridges	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Jalen Green player threes escalator · Jalen Green	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Keaton Wagler player threes escalator · Keaton Wagler	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Darius Garland player threes escalator · Darius Garland	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Lauri Markkanen player threes escalator · Lauri Markkanen	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Darryn Peterson player threes escalator · Darryn Peterson	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Klay Thompson player threes escalator · Klay Thompson	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
VJ Edgecombe player threes escalator · VJ Edgecombe	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
LeBron James player threes escalator · LeBron James	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Jaylen Brown player threes escalator · Jaylen Brown	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Derrick White player threes escalator · Derrick White	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
OG Anunoby player threes escalator · OG Anunoby	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.