What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.22.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NBA Player Points Escalator on Kalshi

If Each Yes contract pays per points recorded by Damian Lillard in the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026. Each 2 points scored increases the payout by the following schedule: 0–1 points, $0.0000; 2–3, $0.0000; 4–5, $0.0005; 6–7, $0.0017; 8–9, $0.0040; 10–11, $0.0080; 12–13, $0.0138; 14–15, $0.0219; 16–17, $0.0327; 18–19, $0.0466; 20–21, $0.0640; 22–23, $0.0851; 24–25, $0.1105; 26–27, $0.1406; 28–29, $0.1756; 30–31, $0.2160; 32–33, $0.2621; 34–35, $0.3144; 36–37, $0.3732; 38–39, $0.4389; 40–41, $0.5120; 42–43, $0.5927; 44–45, $0.6814; 46–47, $0.7786; 48–49, $0.8847; and 50 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.22	8.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Tyrese Maxey player points escalator · Tyrese Maxey	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	625	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Jayson Tatum player points escalator · Jayson Tatum	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	567	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Jaylen Brown player points escalator · Jaylen Brown	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	23%	339	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Deni Avdija player points escalator · Deni Avdija	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	25%	271	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Payton Pritchard player points escalator · Payton Pritchard	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	190	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Paul George player points escalator · Paul George	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	183	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Jaime Jaquez Jr. player points escalator · Jaime Jaquez Jr.	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	170	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
LeBron James player points escalator · LeBron James	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	162	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Devin Booker player points escalator · Devin Booker	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	162	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Darryn Peterson player points escalator · Darryn Peterson	7¢	7%	0.4¢	—	14%	134	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Karl-Anthony Towns player points escalator · Karl-Anthony Towns	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	113	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
OG Anunoby player points escalator · OG Anunoby	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	113	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
Jalen Brunson player points escalator · Jalen Brunson	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	35%	110	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
Tyler Herro player points escalator · Tyler Herro	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	79	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
Giannis Antetokounmpo player points escalator · Giannis Antetokounmpo	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	29	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player points escalator · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	61%	26	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Darius Garland player points escalator · Darius Garland	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	21%	25	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Keaton Wagler player points escalator · Keaton Wagler	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	24	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Joel Embiid player points escalator · Joel Embiid	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	18	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Damian Lillard player points escalator · Damian Lillard	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Nov 13, 04:00 UTC
Zach LaVine player points escalator · Zach LaVine	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	15%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Domantas Sabonis player points escalator · Domantas Sabonis	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Darius Acuff Jr. player points escalator · Darius Acuff Jr.	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Franz Wagner player points escalator · Franz Wagner	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Desmond Bane player points escalator · Desmond Bane	9¢	9%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Jalen Green player points escalator · Jalen Green	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Lauri Markkanen player points escalator · Lauri Markkanen	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
Bam Adebayo player points escalator · Bam Adebayo	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Nov 13, 02:00 UTC
VJ Edgecombe player points escalator · VJ Edgecombe	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Derrick White player points escalator · Derrick White	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.