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NBA Finals MVP on Kalshi
If Zion Williamson wins the Pro Basketball Finals MVP in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 75 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Austin Reaves · Austin Reaves | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,950 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Jalen Brunson · Jalen Brunson | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,760 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Darius Garland · Darius Garland | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,324 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Ajay Mitchell · Ajay Mitchell | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,141 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Jaylen Brown · Jaylen Brown | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,772 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Paolo Banchero · Paolo Banchero | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,637 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Ivica Zubac · Ivica Zubac | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,552 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Franz Wagner · Franz Wagner | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,482 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Stephen Curry · Stephen Curry | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,377 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Alperen Sengun · Alperen Sengun | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,228 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Amen Thompson · Amen Thompson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,118 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Stephon Castle · Stephon Castle | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,087 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Tyrese Maxey · Tyrese Maxey | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 904 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Luka Dončić · Luka Dončić | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 459 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: LeBron James · LeBron James | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 431 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Victor Wembanyama · Victor Wembanyama | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 323 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: DeMar DeRozan · DeMar DeRozan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 287 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: VJ Edgecombe · VJ Edgecombe | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 283 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Zion Williamson · Zion Williamson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 271 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jaren Jackson Jr. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 266 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Andrew Nembhard · Andrew Nembhard | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 255 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Desmond Bane · Desmond Bane | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 254 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Immanuel Quickley · Immanuel Quickley | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 253 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Coby White · Coby White | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 249 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Jalen Duren · Jalen Duren | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 248 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Jimmy Butler III · Jimmy Butler III | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 248 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Jarrett Allen · Jarrett Allen | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 248 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Damian Lillard · Damian Lillard | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 247 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Devin Booker · Devin Booker | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 245 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Deni Avdija · Deni Avdija | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 245 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Brandon Miller · Brandon Miller | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 245 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Bam Adebayo · Bam Adebayo | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 245 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: De'Aaron Fox · De'Aaron Fox | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 244 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Jalen Williams · Jalen Williams | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 243 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: OG Anunoby · OG Anunoby | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 243 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Anthony Davis · Anthony Davis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 243 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Brandon Ingram · Brandon Ingram | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 241 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Payton Pritchard · Payton Pritchard | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 239 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Devin Vassell · Devin Vassell | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 239 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals MVP: Paul George · Paul George | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 237 | Aug 08, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 75 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.