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NBA Head to Head Win Total on Kalshi
If San Antonio records more wins than Philadelphia in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston to record more wins than Philadelphia in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Boston | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 6,514 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Denver to record more wins than Minnesota in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Denver | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,619 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Minnesota to record more wins than Denver in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Minnesota | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,545 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia to record more wins than Boston in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Philadelphia | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,255 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Boston to record more wins than New York in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Boston | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 978 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| New York to record more wins than Philadelphia in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · New York | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 800 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia to record more wins than New York in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Philadelphia | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 791 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Utah to record more wins than Washington in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Utah | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 720 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Dallas to record more wins than Charlotte in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Dallas | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 710 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Charlotte to record more wins than Dallas in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Charlotte | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 700 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Golden State to record more wins than Los Angeles L in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Golden State | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 561 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio to record more wins than Oklahoma City in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · San Antonio | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 500 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Washington to record more wins than Utah in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Washington | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 409 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L to record more wins than Miami in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Los Angeles L | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 200 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L to record more wins than Golden State in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Los Angeles L | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 79 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Cleveland to record more wins than Detroit in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Cleveland | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 50 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio to record more wins than Philadelphia in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · San Antonio | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 4 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Houston to record more wins than Denver in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Houston | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 3 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| New York to record more wins than San Antonio in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · New York | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 3 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia to record more wins than San Antonio in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Philadelphia | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 3 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City to record more wins than New York in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Oklahoma City | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| New York to record more wins than Oklahoma City in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · New York | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio to record more wins than New York in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · San Antonio | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Denver to record more wins than Houston in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Denver | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Detroit to record more wins than Cleveland in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Detroit | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami to record more wins than Boston in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Miami | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Boston to record more wins than Miami in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Boston | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| New York to record more wins than Boston in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · New York | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami to record more wins than Los Angeles L in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Miami | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City to record more wins than San Antonio in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season · Oklahoma City | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Jul 03, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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