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NBA Players to Make One Three on Kalshi
If Walker Kessler makes at least 1 three-pointer in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert to make at least 1 three-pointer · Rudy Gobert | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 278 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Andre Drummond to make at least 1 three-pointer · Andre Drummond | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 218 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Mitchell Robinson to make at least 1 three-pointer · Mitchell Robinson | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 215 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Isaiah Hartenstein to make at least 1 three-pointer · Isaiah Hartenstein | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 200 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Bronny James to make at least 1 three-pointer · Bronny James | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 181 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Walker Kessler to make at least 1 three-pointer · Walker Kessler | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 1 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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