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Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifier on Kalshi
If Washington qualifies for the Pro Basketball Playoffs in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
68%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
63% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 69¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.09 | 70.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Washington | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 96,153 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Philadelphia | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 48,126 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Utah | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 36,114 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Golden State | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 32,430 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Dallas | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 22,791 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Charlotte | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 21,167 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Memphis | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 17,944 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Chicago | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 17,568 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Los Angeles C | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 14,229 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Sacramento | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 13,917 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Milwaukee | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 13,099 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Portland | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 12,057 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Los Angeles L | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 10,871 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Brooklyn | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 10,435 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Miami | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 10,156 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · New Orleans | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 10,074 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Minnesota | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 9,498 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Indiana | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 9,390 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Boston | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8,257 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · New York | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5,824 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Phoenix | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 5,752 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Orlando | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 5,523 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Atlanta | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 5,468 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Oklahoma City | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 5,091 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Toronto | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 4,898 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Cleveland | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 4,813 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Detroit | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 4,753 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Houston | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 4,339 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · Denver | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 3,349 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers · San Antonio | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,744 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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