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NBA Team Home Playoff Games on Kalshi
If Miami hosts at least 8 games at home in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 49 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami: 8+ home playoff games · 8+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami: 6+ home playoff games · 6+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami: 4+ home playoff games · 4+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami: 2+ home playoff games · 2+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami: 14+ home playoff games · 14+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami: 12+ home playoff games · 12+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami: 10+ home playoff games · 10+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City: 8+ home playoff games · 8+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City: 6+ home playoff games · 6+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City: 4+ home playoff games · 4+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City: 2+ home playoff games · 2+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City: 14+ home playoff games · 14+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City: 12+ home playoff games · 12+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City: 10+ home playoff games · 10+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio: 8+ home playoff games · 8+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio: 6+ home playoff games · 6+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio: 4+ home playoff games · 4+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio: 2+ home playoff games · 2+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio: 14+ home playoff games · 14+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio: 12+ home playoff games · 12+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio: 10+ home playoff games · 10+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia: 8+ home playoff games · 8+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia: 6+ home playoff games · 6+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia: 4+ home playoff games · 4+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia: 2+ home playoff games · 2+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia: 14+ home playoff games · 14+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia: 12+ home playoff games · 12+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia: 10+ home playoff games · 10+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L: 8+ home playoff games · 8+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L: 6+ home playoff games · 6+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L: 4+ home playoff games · 4+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L: 2+ home playoff games · 2+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L: 14+ home playoff games · 14+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L: 12+ home playoff games · 12+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L: 10+ home playoff games · 10+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| New York: 8+ home playoff games · 8+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| New York: 6+ home playoff games · 6+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| New York: 4+ home playoff games · 4+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| New York: 2+ home playoff games · 2+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| New York: 14+ home playoff games · 14+ home playoff games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 49 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.