Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Points on Kalshi
If Isaiah Collier records 20+ points in the Miami vs Utah Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
31%
Median YES price across 251 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
62% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 31¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.41 | 32.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown: 25+ points · Jaylen Brown: 25+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,698 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 30+ points · Jaylen Brown: 30+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,582 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 30+ points · Jayson Tatum: 30+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 1,147 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: 15+ points · Isaiah Hartenstein: 15+ | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 784 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 25+ points · Tyrese Maxey: 25+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 675 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jalen Brunson: 25+ points · Jalen Brunson: 25+ | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 592 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| LeBron James: 15+ points · LeBron James: 15+ | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 580 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 35+ points · Jayson Tatum: 35+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 549 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Darryn Peterson: 25+ points · Darryn Peterson: 25+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 503 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: 10+ points · Isaiah Hartenstein: 10+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 489 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Joel Embiid: 20+ points · Joel Embiid: 20+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 479 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Damian Lillard: 20+ points · Damian Lillard: 20+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 477 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 10+ points · VJ Edgecombe: 10+ | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 468 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 20+ points · LeBron James: 20+ | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 410 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 25+ points · LeBron James: 25+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 392 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 25+ points · Devin Booker: 25+ | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 375 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Josh Hart: 10+ points · Josh Hart: 10+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 356 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Toumani Camara: 15+ points · Toumani Camara: 15+ | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 342 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Derrick White: 10+ points · Derrick White: 10+ | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 334 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 30+ points · Karl-Anthony Towns: 30+ | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 325 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 20+ points · Jaylen Brown: 20+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 318 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jalen Brunson: 30+ points · Jalen Brunson: 30+ | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 307 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 25+ points · Jayson Tatum: 25+ | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 301 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Deni Avdija: 25+ points · Deni Avdija: 25+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 294 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Josh Hart: 15+ points · Josh Hart: 15+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 272 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 20+ points · Tyrese Maxey: 20+ | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 270 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Deni Avdija: 30+ points · Deni Avdija: 30+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 268 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Darryn Peterson: 20+ points · Darryn Peterson: 20+ | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 237 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Davion Mitchell: 20+ points · Davion Mitchell: 20+ | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 237 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: 30+ points · Giannis Antetokounmpo: 30+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 208 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Damian Lillard: 25+ points · Damian Lillard: 25+ | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 194 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Paul George: 20+ points · Paul George: 20+ | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 183 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jared McCain: 10+ points · Jared McCain: 10+ | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 170 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Neemias Queta: 10+ points · Neemias Queta: 10+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 150 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Bam Adebayo: 20+ points · Bam Adebayo: 20+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 131 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Damian Lillard: 30+ points · Damian Lillard: 30+ | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 117 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Mitchell Robinson: 10+ points · Mitchell Robinson: 10+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 114 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Anfernee Simons: 15+ points · Anfernee Simons: 15+ | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 98 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Ajay Mitchell: 25+ points · Ajay Mitchell: 25+ | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 95 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 30+ points · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 30+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 92 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 251 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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