Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Race to Points on Kalshi
If Portland is the first to score 30 points in the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 96 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah reaches 10 points first · Utah | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 37 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia reaches 10 points first · Philadelphia | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 36 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Portland reaches 10 points first · Portland | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 32 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L reaches 10 points first · Los Angeles L | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 30 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| New York reaches 10 points first · New York | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 18 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Boston reaches 10 points first · Boston | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 5 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Portland reaches 30 points first · Portland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City reaches 30 points first · Oklahoma City | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Portland reaches 20 points first · Portland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City reaches 20 points first · Oklahoma City | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Portland reaches 10 points first · Portland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City reaches 10 points first · Oklahoma City | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Houston reaches 30 points first · Houston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Golden State reaches 30 points first · Golden State | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Houston reaches 20 points first · Houston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Golden State reaches 20 points first · Golden State | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Houston reaches 10 points first · Houston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Golden State reaches 10 points first · Golden State | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Utah reaches 30 points first · Utah | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Orlando reaches 30 points first · Orlando | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah reaches 20 points first · Utah | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Orlando reaches 20 points first · Orlando | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah reaches 10 points first · Utah | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Orlando reaches 10 points first · Orlando | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| New Orleans reaches 30 points first · New Orleans | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Brooklyn reaches 30 points first · Brooklyn | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| New Orleans reaches 20 points first · New Orleans | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Brooklyn reaches 20 points first · Brooklyn | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| New Orleans reaches 10 points first · New Orleans | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Brooklyn reaches 10 points first · Brooklyn | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee reaches 30 points first · Milwaukee | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L reaches 30 points first · Los Angeles L | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee reaches 20 points first · Milwaukee | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L reaches 20 points first · Los Angeles L | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee reaches 10 points first · Milwaukee | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Memphis reaches 30 points first · Memphis | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Denver reaches 30 points first · Denver | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Memphis reaches 20 points first · Memphis | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Denver reaches 20 points first · Denver | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Memphis reaches 10 points first · Memphis | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 96 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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