Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Rebounds on Kalshi
If Wendell Carter Jr. records 14+ rebounds in the Orlando vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 295 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
89% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid: 12+ rebounds · Joel Embiid: 12+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 488 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 10+ rebounds · Wendell Carter Jr.: 10+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 399 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Donovan Clingan: 12+ rebounds · Donovan Clingan: 12+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 366 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Mitchell Robinson: 6+ rebounds · Mitchell Robinson: 6+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 360 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Aday Mara: 6+ rebounds · Aday Mara: 6+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 346 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 8+ rebounds · Jayson Tatum: 8+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 332 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: 10+ rebounds · Isaiah Hartenstein: 10+ | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 331 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: 12+ rebounds · Giannis Antetokounmpo: 12+ | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 325 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jared McCain: 4+ rebounds · Jared McCain: 4+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 314 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Andre Drummond: 8+ rebounds · Andre Drummond: 8+ | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 253 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Andre Drummond: 6+ rebounds · Andre Drummond: 6+ | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 211 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Josh Hart: 10+ rebounds · Josh Hart: 10+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 182 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Damian Lillard: 4+ rebounds · Damian Lillard: 4+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 175 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Andrew Wiggins: 4+ rebounds · Andrew Wiggins: 4+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 175 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Paul George: 6+ rebounds · Paul George: 6+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 159 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 8+ rebounds · LeBron James: 8+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 141 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jrue Holiday: 4+ rebounds · Jrue Holiday: 4+ | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 136 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Derrick White: 6+ rebounds · Derrick White: 6+ | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 124 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Bam Adebayo: 10+ rebounds · Bam Adebayo: 10+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 107 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Bobby Portis: 6+ rebounds · Bobby Portis: 6+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 100 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 4+ rebounds · Tyrese Maxey: 4+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 100 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Derrick White: 4+ rebounds · Derrick White: 4+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 100 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 6+ rebounds · VJ Edgecombe: 6+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 81 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Mitchell Robinson: 8+ rebounds · Mitchell Robinson: 8+ | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 66 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 12+ rebounds · Jayson Tatum: 12+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 37 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 12+ rebounds · Karl-Anthony Towns: 12+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 35 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Ace Bailey: 6+ rebounds · Ace Bailey: 6+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 33 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 4+ rebounds · Darius Acuff Jr.: 4+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 29 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 6+ rebounds · LeBron James: 6+ | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 27 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Joel Embiid: 10+ rebounds · Joel Embiid: 10+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 25 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Pelle Larsson: 4+ rebounds · Pelle Larsson: 4+ | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 23 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 10+ rebounds · Jaylen Brown: 10+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 23 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Darryn Peterson: 8+ rebounds · Darryn Peterson: 8+ | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 20 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Davion Mitchell: 4+ rebounds · Davion Mitchell: 4+ | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 20 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 6+ rebounds · Tyrese Maxey: 6+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 20 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Paul George: 8+ rebounds · Paul George: 8+ | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 20 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Alex Caruso: 4+ rebounds · Alex Caruso: 4+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 19 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Ajay Mitchell: 4+ rebounds · Ajay Mitchell: 4+ | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 15 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 10+ rebounds · Jayson Tatum: 10+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 10 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Joel Embiid: 6+ rebounds · Joel Embiid: 6+ | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 9 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 295 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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