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NBA Player Rebounds Protected on Kalshi
If Wendell Carter Jr. records 14+ rebounds in the Orlando vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
43%
Median YES price across 295 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid: 10+ rebounds · Joel Embiid: 10+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 22 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 8+ rebounds · LeBron James: 8+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 13 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 6+ rebounds · VJ Edgecombe: 6+ | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 10 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Pelle Larsson: 4+ rebounds · Pelle Larsson: 4+ | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 9 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 6+ rebounds · Jayson Tatum: 6+ | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 6 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 14+ rebounds · Wendell Carter Jr.: 14+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Andre Hunter: 8+ rebounds · De'Andre Hunter: 8+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Andre Hunter: 6+ rebounds · De'Andre Hunter: 6+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Andre Hunter: 4+ rebounds · De'Andre Hunter: 4+ | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Andre Hunter: 2+ rebounds · De'Andre Hunter: 2+ | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Zach LaVine: 6+ rebounds · Zach LaVine: 6+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Zach LaVine: 4+ rebounds · Zach LaVine: 4+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Zach LaVine: 2+ rebounds · Zach LaVine: 2+ | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Keegan Murray: 8+ rebounds · Keegan Murray: 8+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Keegan Murray: 6+ rebounds · Keegan Murray: 6+ | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Keegan Murray: 4+ rebounds · Keegan Murray: 4+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Keegan Murray: 2+ rebounds · Keegan Murray: 2+ | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 8+ rebounds · Darius Acuff Jr.: 8+ | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 6+ rebounds · Darius Acuff Jr.: 6+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 4+ rebounds · Darius Acuff Jr.: 4+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 2+ rebounds · Darius Acuff Jr.: 2+ | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 16+ rebounds · Domantas Sabonis: 16+ | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 14+ rebounds · Domantas Sabonis: 14+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 12+ rebounds · Domantas Sabonis: 12+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 10+ rebounds · Domantas Sabonis: 10+ | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 8+ rebounds · Domantas Sabonis: 8+ | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Precious Achiuwa: 12+ rebounds · Precious Achiuwa: 12+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Precious Achiuwa: 10+ rebounds · Precious Achiuwa: 10+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Precious Achiuwa: 8+ rebounds · Precious Achiuwa: 8+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Precious Achiuwa: 6+ rebounds · Precious Achiuwa: 6+ | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Precious Achiuwa: 4+ rebounds · Precious Achiuwa: 4+ | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Oso Ighodaro: 8+ rebounds · Oso Ighodaro: 8+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Oso Ighodaro: 6+ rebounds · Oso Ighodaro: 6+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Oso Ighodaro: 4+ rebounds · Oso Ighodaro: 4+ | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Oso Ighodaro: 2+ rebounds · Oso Ighodaro: 2+ | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miles Bridges: 8+ rebounds · Miles Bridges: 8+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miles Bridges: 6+ rebounds · Miles Bridges: 6+ | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miles Bridges: 4+ rebounds · Miles Bridges: 4+ | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miles Bridges: 10+ rebounds · Miles Bridges: 10+ | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Khaman Maluach: 8+ rebounds · Khaman Maluach: 8+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 295 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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