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Pro Basketball Team Relocation on Kalshi
If the Portland Pro Basketball team relocates or officially announces a relocation to Tampa Bay before the start of the 2027-28 Pro Basketball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to St. Louis before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · St. Louis | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,441 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are not relocating or stay in Portland before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · Do not relocate/announce a relocation | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 887 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Nashville before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · Nashville | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 292 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Kansas City before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · Kansas City | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 36 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Tampa Bay before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · Tampa Bay | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Seattle before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · Seattle | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to San Diego before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · San Diego | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Pittsburgh before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · Pittsburgh | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Las Vegas before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · Las Vegas | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Columbus before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · Columbus | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Austin before the start of the 2027-28 regular season? · Austin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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