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NBA Rookie of the Year on Kalshi
If Ryan Conwell wins the Pro Basketball Rookie of the Year in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yaxel Lendeborg win Rookie of the Year? · Yaxel Lendeborg | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 562,598 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Darius Acuff Jr. win Rookie of the Year? · Darius Acuff Jr. | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 391,331 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Caleb Wilson win Rookie of the Year? · Caleb Wilson | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 326,794 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Aday Mara win Rookie of the Year? · Aday Mara | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 308,755 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will AJ Dybantsa win Rookie of the Year? · AJ Dybantsa | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 300,541 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cameron Boozer win Rookie of the Year? · Cameron Boozer | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 288,933 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Darryn Peterson win Rookie of the Year? · Darryn Peterson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 192,021 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mikel Brown Jr. win Rookie of the Year? · Mikel Brown Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 168,743 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brayden Burries win Rookie of the Year? · Brayden Burries | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 164,066 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Keaton Wagler win Rookie of the Year? · Keaton Wagler | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 142,496 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kingston Flemings win Rookie of the Year? · Kingston Flemings | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 96,994 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tie/Co-Winners win Rookie of the Year? · Tie/Co-Winners | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 58,199 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bennett Stirtz win Rookie of the Year? · Bennett Stirtz | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25,012 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Morez Johnson Jr. win Rookie of the Year? · Morez Johnson Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,158 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Hannes Steinbach win Rookie of the Year? · Hannes Steinbach | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,017 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nate Ament win Rookie of the Year? · Nate Ament | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,556 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dailyn Swain win Rookie of the Year? · Dailyn Swain | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 872 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Rookie of the Year: Ryan Conwell · Ryan Conwell | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 467 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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