Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Playoff Seed on Kalshi
If Utah is the #8 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 210 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Conference #3 Seed: Houston · Houston | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,681 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #2 Seed: Houston · Houston | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,354 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #3 Seed: Los Angeles L · Los Angeles L | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 995 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #2 Seed: San Antonio · San Antonio | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 800 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #2 Seed: Detroit · Detroit | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 630 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #2 Seed: Minnesota · Minnesota | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 545 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #2 Seed: Cleveland · Cleveland | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 520 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #2 Seed: Denver · Denver | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 506 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #3 Seed: Minnesota · Minnesota | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 502 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #5 Seed: Washington · Washington | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 455 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #2 Seed: Portland · Portland | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 443 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #2 Seed: Toronto · Toronto | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 421 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #3 Seed: Golden State · Golden State | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 400 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #3 Seed: Portland · Portland | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 342 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #5 Seed: Golden State · Golden State | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 340 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #4 Seed: Golden State · Golden State | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 339 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #3 Seed: Denver · Denver | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 253 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #4 Seed: Portland · Portland | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 246 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #2 Seed: Golden State · Golden State | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 234 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #3 Seed: San Antonio · San Antonio | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 233 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #5 Seed: Portland · Portland | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 189 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #3 Seed: Miami · Miami | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 151 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #2 Seed: Los Angeles L · Los Angeles L | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 115 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #6 Seed: Portland · Portland | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 88 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #8 Seed: Chicago · Chicago | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 85 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #4 Seed: Houston · Houston | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 80 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #8 Seed: Milwaukee · Milwaukee | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 67 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #2 Seed: Miami · Miami | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 62 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #4 Seed: Memphis · Memphis | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 58 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #7 Seed: Portland · Portland | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 58 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #8 Seed: Dallas · Dallas | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 51 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #7 Seed: Minnesota · Minnesota | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 47 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #2 Seed: Memphis · Memphis | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 41 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #3 Seed: Indiana · Indiana | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 36 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #4 Seed: Los Angeles L · Los Angeles L | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 35 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #5 Seed: Utah · Utah | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 33 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #8 Seed: Portland · Portland | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 32 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #5 Seed: New York · New York | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 31 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Eastern Conference #5 Seed: Atlanta · Atlanta | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 26 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Western Conference #4 Seed: Minnesota · Minnesota | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 24 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 210 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.