Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Spread on Kalshi
If Phoenix wins by more than 8.5 points in the Los Angeles C vs Phoenix Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
21%
Median YES price across 198 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
42% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York wins by over 9.5 points · New York wins by over 9.5 points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 18,294 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by over 2.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 2.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 13,310 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 10,268 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Boston wins by over 1.5 points · Boston wins by over 1.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 7,566 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Miami wins by over 9.5 points · Miami wins by over 9.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 6,311 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by over 1.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 1.5 points | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 2,417 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| New York wins by over 15.5 points · New York wins by over 15.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 2,416 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Miami wins by over 8.5 points · Miami wins by over 8.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 2,160 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins by over 10.5 points · Miami wins by over 10.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 2,142 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by over 3.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 3.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,918 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,623 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Boston wins by over 2.5 points · Boston wins by over 2.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,618 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Miami wins by over 5.5 points · Miami wins by over 5.5 points | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 1,602 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Phoenix wins by over 1.5 points · Phoenix wins by over 1.5 points | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,537 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins by over 6.5 points · Orlando wins by over 6.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,432 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by over 7.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 7.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1,422 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins by over 5.5 points · Orlando wins by over 5.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,376 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 5.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 5.5 points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,356 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points · Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 1,351 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins by over 1.5 points · Utah wins by over 1.5 points | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 1,319 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| New York wins by over 14.5 points · New York wins by over 14.5 points | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,285 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| New York wins by over 16.5 points · New York wins by over 16.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,249 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| New York wins by over 5.5 points · New York wins by over 5.5 points | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,212 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| New York wins by over 10.5 points · New York wins by over 10.5 points | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 1,119 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 7.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 7.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 1,034 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Phoenix wins by over 4.5 points · Phoenix wins by over 4.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 971 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins by over 20.5 points · Miami wins by over 20.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 911 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| New York wins by over 29.5 points · New York wins by over 29.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 738 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Phoenix wins by over 3.5 points · Phoenix wins by over 3.5 points | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 670 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| New York wins by over 41.5 points · New York wins by over 41.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 659 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| New York wins by over 12.5 points · New York wins by over 12.5 points | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 643 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by over 5.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 5.5 points | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 560 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Boston wins by over 12.5 points · Boston wins by over 12.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 512 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 3.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 3.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 509 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Boston wins by over 14.5 points · Boston wins by over 14.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 400 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Boston wins by over 16.5 points · Boston wins by over 16.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 400 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 4.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 4.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 372 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Portland wins by over 5.5 points · Portland wins by over 5.5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 364 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles C wins by over 1.5 points · Los Angeles C wins by over 1.5 points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 316 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by over 11.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 11.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 279 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 198 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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