Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Stat Average on Kalshi
If Zach LaVine records at least 2.6 three-pointers made per game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 188 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama: 24.8+ PPG · Victor Wembanyama: 24.8+ PPG | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1,008 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Trae Young: 9.2+ APG · Trae Young: 9.2+ APG | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 846 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Jalen Johnson: 7.1+ APG · Jalen Johnson: 7.1+ APG | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 841 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Cade Cunningham: 9.5+ APG · Cade Cunningham: 9.5+ APG | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 830 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Cooper Flagg: 6.4+ RPG · Cooper Flagg: 6.4+ RPG | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 826 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Nikola Jokic: 9.6+ APG · Nikola Jokic: 9.6+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 826 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| James Harden: 8.0+ APG · James Harden: 8.0+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 825 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 6.6+ APG · Darius Acuff Jr.: 6.6+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 822 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Stephon Castle: 6.7+ APG · Stephon Castle: 6.7+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 822 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Luka Doncic: 8.1+ APG · Luka Doncic: 8.1+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 822 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Damian Lillard: 6.2+ APG · Damian Lillard: 6.2+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 822 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: 6.6+ APG · Giannis Antetokounmpo: 6.6+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 822 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 9.6+ APG · Tyrese Haliburton: 9.6+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 821 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 6.0+ APG · Tyrese Maxey: 6.0+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 818 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| LaMelo Ball: 7.8+ APG · LaMelo Ball: 7.8+ APG | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 813 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Ja Morant: 6.6+ APG · Ja Morant: 6.6+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 808 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 6.5+ APG · Devin Booker: 6.5+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 801 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Josh Giddey: 9.1+ APG · Josh Giddey: 9.1+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 788 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Darius Garland: 6.6+ APG · Darius Garland: 6.6+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 737 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Scottie Barnes: 7.5+ RPG · Scottie Barnes: 7.5+ RPG | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 733 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Nikola Jokic: 1.7+ 3PG · Nikola Jokic: 1.7+ 3PG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 731 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 25.1+ PPG · Stephen Curry: 25.1+ PPG | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 721 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 12.8+ RPG · Domantas Sabonis: 12.8+ RPG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 709 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Alperen Sengun: 5.5+ APG · Alperen Sengun: 5.5+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 698 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3.3+ APG · Victor Wembanyama: 3.3+ APG | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 688 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Kawhi Leonard: 3.7+ APG · Kawhi Leonard: 3.7+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 686 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 5.2+ APG · Stephen Curry: 5.2+ APG | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 684 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Deni Avdija: 5.8+ APG · Deni Avdija: 5.8+ APG | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 684 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 5.9+ APG · Domantas Sabonis: 5.9+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 683 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| De'Aaron Fox: 5.6+ APG · De'Aaron Fox: 5.6+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 680 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum: 5.7+ APG · Jayson Tatum: 5.7+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 679 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 6.3+ APG · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 6.3+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 667 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Anthony Edwards: 4.3+ APG · Anthony Edwards: 4.3+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 666 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Scottie Barnes: 5.9+ APG · Scottie Barnes: 5.9+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 655 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Jalen Brunson: 6.8+ APG · Jalen Brunson: 6.8+ APG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 651 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 25.4+ PPG · Tyrese Maxey: 25.4+ PPG | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 633 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Kyrie Irving: 2.7+ 3PG · Kyrie Irving: 2.7+ 3PG | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 609 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| CJ McCollum: 2.6+ 3PG · CJ McCollum: 2.6+ 3PG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 568 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Lauri Markkanen: 22.1+ PPG · Lauri Markkanen: 22.1+ PPG | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 567 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 2.8+ 3PG · Tyrese Maxey: 2.8+ 3PG | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 563 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 188 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.