Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Steals on Kalshi
If Desmond Bane records 3+ steals in the Orlando vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
43%
Median YES price across 53 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul George: 3+ steals · Paul George: 3+ | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 71 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Paul George: 2+ steals · Paul George: 2+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 2+ steals · VJ Edgecombe: 2+ | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 17 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Desmond Bane: 3+ steals · Desmond Bane: 3+ | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Desmond Bane: 2+ steals · Desmond Bane: 2+ | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Desmond Bane: 1+ steals · Desmond Bane: 1+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Tristan da Silva: 2+ steals · Tristan da Silva: 2+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Tristan da Silva: 1+ steals · Tristan da Silva: 1+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Anthony Black: 3+ steals · Anthony Black: 3+ | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Anthony Black: 2+ steals · Anthony Black: 2+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Anthony Black: 1+ steals · Anthony Black: 1+ | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Franz Wagner: 3+ steals · Franz Wagner: 3+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Franz Wagner: 2+ steals · Franz Wagner: 2+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Franz Wagner: 1+ steals · Franz Wagner: 1+ | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 3+ steals · Devin Booker: 3+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 2+ steals · Devin Booker: 2+ | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Devin Booker: 1+ steals · Devin Booker: 1+ | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Collin Gillespie: 3+ steals · Collin Gillespie: 3+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Collin Gillespie: 2+ steals · Collin Gillespie: 2+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Collin Gillespie: 1+ steals · Collin Gillespie: 1+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Kris Dunn: 4+ steals · Kris Dunn: 4+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Kris Dunn: 3+ steals · Kris Dunn: 3+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Kris Dunn: 2+ steals · Kris Dunn: 2+ | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Darius Garland: 3+ steals · Darius Garland: 3+ | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Darius Garland: 2+ steals · Darius Garland: 2+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Darius Garland: 1+ steals · Darius Garland: 1+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Zach LaVine: 3+ steals · Zach LaVine: 3+ | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Zach LaVine: 2+ steals · Zach LaVine: 2+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Zach LaVine: 1+ steals · Zach LaVine: 1+ | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 2+ steals · Domantas Sabonis: 2+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Domantas Sabonis: 1+ steals · Domantas Sabonis: 1+ | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Andre Hunter: 2+ steals · De'Andre Hunter: 2+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Andre Hunter: 1+ steals · De'Andre Hunter: 1+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3+ steals · Darius Acuff Jr.: 3+ | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 2+ steals · Darius Acuff Jr.: 2+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 1+ steals · Darius Acuff Jr.: 1+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 3+ steals · LeBron James: 3+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 2+ steals · LeBron James: 2+ | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 1+ steals · LeBron James: 1+ | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 3+ steals · Jaylen Brown: 3+ | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 53 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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