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NBA Players to Join the CBA on Kalshi
If Ben Simmons signs a contract with any team in the Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) after issuance and before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sports Illustrated, the Governing League, Bleacher Report, Fox Sports, The Athletic, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
51%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Thomas to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Cam Thomas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 600 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Sharife Cooper to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Sharife Cooper | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 483 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Ryan Nembhard to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Ryan Nembhard | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 297 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Gabe Vincent to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Gabe Vincent | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 208 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Drew Timme to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Drew Timme | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 204 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Killian Hayes to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Killian Hayes | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 200 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Gary Harris to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Gary Harris | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 200 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Dwight Powell to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Dwight Powell | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 200 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Dalton Knecht to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Dalton Knecht | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 200 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Bismack Biyombo to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Bismack Biyombo | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 200 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Kevin Love to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Kevin Love | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 9 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Ben Simmons to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Ben Simmons | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Yuki Kawamura to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Yuki Kawamura | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Thanasis Antetokounmpo | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Seth Curry to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Seth Curry | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Nicolas Batum to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Nicolas Batum | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Maxi Kleber to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Maxi Kleber | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Mason Plumlee to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Mason Plumlee | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Markelle Fultz to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Markelle Fultz | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Mac McClung to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Mac McClung | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Kelly Olynyk to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Kelly Olynyk | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Jonas Valančiūnas to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Jonas Valančiūnas | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Joe Ingles to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Joe Ingles | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Jeff Green to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Jeff Green | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Doug McDermott to sign with a CBA team before Oct 1, 2027 · Doug McDermott | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Oct 08, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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