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NBA Western Conference Finals Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Utah qualifies for the Western Conference Finals in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
71% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Portland | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 711 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Minnesota qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Minnesota | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 706 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Houston qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Houston | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 630 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · San Antonio | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 627 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Dallas qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Dallas | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 567 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Oklahoma City | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 461 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Los Angeles L | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 408 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Golden State qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Golden State | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 231 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Memphis qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Memphis | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 167 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Denver qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Denver | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 43 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Phoenix qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Phoenix | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Utah qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Utah | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Sacramento qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Sacramento | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| New Orleans qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · New Orleans | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles C qualifies for the Western Conference Finals · Los Angeles C | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 07, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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