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NBA Western Conference 1 Seed on Kalshi
If Utah is the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will San Antonio be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · San Antonio | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 39,398 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Minnesota | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 34,870 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma City be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Oklahoma City | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 30,010 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Houston be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Houston | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 18,664 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles L be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Los Angeles L | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 18,656 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Utah be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Utah | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,082 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Portland be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Portland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,850 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Memphis be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Memphis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 8,108 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Golden State be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Golden State | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,675 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Denver be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Denver | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,644 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dallas be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Dallas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,325 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sacramento be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Sacramento | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 615 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Phoenix be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Phoenix | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 131 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will New Orleans be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · New Orleans | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 36 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C be the #1 seed in the Western Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? · Los Angeles C | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 31 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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