What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

When will House settlement back-pay payments begin? on Kalshi

If damages settlement funds in House v. NCAA (In re College Athlete NIL Litigation) are distributed to at least one member of the Damages Settlement Classes before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bloomberg, National Collegiate Athletic Association, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, Associated Press, Supreme Court, Kurtzman Carson Consultants, LLC, doing business as Verita Global (including the court-approved settlement website it administers), The Wall Street Journal, CBS Sports, Winston & Strawn LLP, ESPN, United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, Reuters, Front Office Sports, Sportico, United States District Court for the Northern District of California, The New York Times (including The Athletic), the Supreme Court of the United States, Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will NCAA settlement back-pay payments begin before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	1,733	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will NCAA settlement back-pay payments begin before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	229	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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