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NCAAF Championship on Kalshi
If Wake Forest wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Wall Street Journal, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 53 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ole Miss win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Ole Miss | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,084,576 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will LSU win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · LSU | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,894,033 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Texas | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,079,473 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will BYU win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · BYU | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,732,493 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Oregon | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,684,055 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Georgia | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 4,588,192 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Ohio St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,389,013 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Alabama | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 4,145,437 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Miami (FL) | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 3,982,249 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Notre Dame | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 3,752,068 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Florida win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Florida | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,356,799 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Indiana | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,060,312 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Oklahoma | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,794,080 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Utah win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Utah | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,739,646 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Tennessee | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,579,095 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Texas Tech | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,063,606 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · UCLA | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,986,675 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will USC win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · USC | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,859,320 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Wake Forest win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Wake Forest | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,754,137 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Michigan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,565,697 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Kentucky | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,495,963 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Penn St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Penn St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 938,099 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Texas A&M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 893,669 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will SMU win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · SMU | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 787,762 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · South Carolina | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 476,007 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Oklahoma St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 419,011 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Auburn | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 381,744 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Washington win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Washington | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 296,459 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Clemson win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Clemson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 274,428 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Iowa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 249,189 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Mississippi St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Mississippi St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 248,786 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Missouri | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 174,056 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Florida St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 116,111 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Houston win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Houston | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 110,739 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Arizona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 106,491 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will TCU win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · TCU | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 99,918 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Louisville | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 85,238 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will California win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · California | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 81,722 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia Tech win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Georgia Tech | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 80,148 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia Tech win the College Football Playoff National Championship? · Virginia Tech | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 75,507 | Feb 23, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 53 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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