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College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Qualifiers on Kalshi
If UTSA qualifies for the 2026 College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will UTSA qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · UTSA | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 8,268 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will North Texas qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · North Texas | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 3,807 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will East Carolina qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · East Carolina | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,309 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Navy qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · Navy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,710 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Memphis qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · Memphis | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 2,437 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will South Florida qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · South Florida | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,582 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulsa qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · Tulsa | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,193 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulane qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · Tulane | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 798 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Army qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · Army | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 571 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Temple qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · Temple | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 356 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UAB qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · UAB | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 289 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rice qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · Rice | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 266 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charlotte qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · Charlotte | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 139 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida Atlantic qualify for the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Game? · Florida Atlantic | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 113 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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