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College Football Teams to Make a Bowl Game on Kalshi
If Wyoming is selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff (CFP) in the 2026-27 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
51%
Median YES price across 120 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Louisville | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,683 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Cincinnati | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2,441 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Arizona selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Arizona | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,647 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Wake Forest selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Wake Forest | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,606 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Missouri selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Missouri | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,504 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Toledo selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Toledo | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,318 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Michigan selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Michigan | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,271 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Northwestern selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Northwestern | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,252 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Iowa St. selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Iowa St. | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,240 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| UTSA selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · UTSA | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,237 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| UCLA selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · UCLA | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,125 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Kennesaw St. selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Kennesaw St. | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,057 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Central Michigan selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Central Michigan | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 923 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Buffalo selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Buffalo | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 650 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Houston selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Houston | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 502 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| UConn selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · UConn | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 483 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| East Carolina selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · East Carolina | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 461 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| California selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · California | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 454 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Arkansas St. selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Arkansas St. | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 443 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Duke selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Duke | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 414 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma St. selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Oklahoma St. | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 375 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| LSU selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · LSU | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 348 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Georgia selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Georgia | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 300 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Bowling Green selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Bowling Green | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 283 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Oklahoma | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 279 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Texas Tech | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 275 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| SMU selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · SMU | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 272 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Delaware selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Delaware | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 219 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Tennessee selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Tennessee | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 211 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Air Force selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Air Force | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 204 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Wisconsin selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Wisconsin | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 200 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Iowa selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Iowa | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 181 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Illinois selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Illinois | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 173 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Florida International selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Florida International | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 159 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Appalachian St. selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Appalachian St. | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 156 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Ole Miss selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Ole Miss | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 150 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| James Madison selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · James Madison | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 144 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Eastern Michigan selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Eastern Michigan | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 142 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Florida St. selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Florida St. | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 142 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
| Louisiana Tech selected to play in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff · Louisiana Tech | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 142 | Jan 07, 17:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 120 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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