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College Football Playoff Conference Representation on Kalshi
If 2+ Group of Six teams (including teams from the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference, and Pac-12 Conference) qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ Big 12 teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 3+ Big 12 teams | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 3,271 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2+ ACC teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 2+ ACC teams | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 3,215 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2+ Big 12 teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 2+ Big 12 teams | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 2,188 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 5+ SEC teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 5+ SEC teams | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 1,602 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 4+ SEC teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 4+ SEC teams | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,078 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 3+ Big Ten teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 3+ Big Ten teams | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 811 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2+ Group of Six teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 2+ Group of Six teams | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 467 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 3+ SEC teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 3+ SEC teams | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 370 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 4+ Big Ten teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 4+ Big Ten teams | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 233 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 3+ ACC teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 3+ ACC teams | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 97 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2+ SEC teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 2+ SEC teams | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 60 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2+ Big Ten teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 2+ Big Ten teams | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 2 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 5+ Big Ten teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 5+ Big Ten teams | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 4+ Big 12 teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 4+ Big 12 teams | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 4+ ACC teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season · 4+ ACC teams | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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