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College Football CFP Poll on Kalshi
If USC is ranked #1 on the Dec 1 College Football Playoff rankings in the 2026-27 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: College Football Playoff Rankings.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 240 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Oregon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 615 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Alabama to be the #3 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Alabama | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 471 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Notre Dame to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Notre Dame | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 351 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Texas | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 334 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Georgia to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Georgia | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 248 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Ohio St. to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Ohio St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 223 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Texas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 197 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Miami (FL) to be the #3 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Miami (FL) | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 182 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Notre Dame to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Notre Dame | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 180 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| USC to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · USC | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 169 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas A&M to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Texas A&M | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 167 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Indiana to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Indiana | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 167 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Alabama to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Alabama | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 165 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Tennessee to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Tennessee | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 161 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Texas Tech | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 153 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Penn St. to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Penn St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 153 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Alabama to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 24 CFP rankings · Alabama | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 146 | Dec 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Michigan to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Michigan | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 136 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Clemson to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Clemson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 134 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| LSU to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · LSU | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 120 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Miami (FL) to be the #2 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Miami (FL) | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 108 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Georgia to be the #1 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Georgia | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 67 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Ole Miss to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Ole Miss | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 39 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Miami (FL) to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Miami (FL) | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 37 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Florida to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Florida | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 34 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Oklahoma | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 33 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Georgia to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Georgia | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 21 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Georgia to be the #2 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Georgia | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 21 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Alabama to be the #3 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Alabama | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 15 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 24 CFP rankings · Texas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 8 | Dec 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas to be the #1 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Texas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Notre Dame to be the #2 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Notre Dame | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 2 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Alabama to be the #1 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Alabama | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Ohio St. to be the #3 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Ohio St. | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| USC to be the #1 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · USC | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas A&M to be the #1 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Texas A&M | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech to be the #1 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Texas Tech | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Tennessee to be the #1 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Tennessee | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Penn St. to be the #1 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Penn St. | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Ohio St. to be the #1 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Ohio St. | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 240 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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