What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 44¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.98.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 45% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 44%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

College Football Coach Out By on Kalshi

If the head coach of the Michigan college football team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, Associated Press, NBC Sports, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, CBS, ESPN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, Politico, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

44%

Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

87% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
43¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.00	44.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Bill Belichick out before Dec 1, 2026 · Before Dec 1, 2026	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	16,143	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Bill Belichick out before Feb 1, 2027 · Before Feb 1, 2027	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	87%	4,856	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Bill Belichick out before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027	23¢	23%	1.2¢	—	46%	4,814	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Bill Belichick out before Jan 1, 2028 · Before Jan 1, 2028	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	2,417	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Dabo Swinney out before Feb 1, 2027 · Before Feb 1, 2027	59¢	59%	1.7¢	—	82%	2,014	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Greg Schiano out before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,103	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Greg Schiano out before Dec 1, 2026 · Before Dec 1, 2026	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	996	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Dabo Swinney out before Jan 1, 2028 · Before Jan 1, 2028	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	86%	854	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Greg Schiano out before Feb 1, 2027 · Before Feb 1, 2027	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	844	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Dabo Swinney out before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	85%	728	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026 · Before Dec 1, 2026	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	706	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Kyle Whittingham out before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	72%	407	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Kyle Whittingham out before Dec 1, 2026 · Before Dec 1, 2026	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	35	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Kyle Whittingham out before Feb 1, 2027 · Before Feb 1, 2027	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Kyle Whittingham out before Jan 1, 2028 · Before Jan 1, 2028	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	94%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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