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NCAAF Championship Conference on Kalshi
If a team in the SEC wins the 2026 College Football National Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Wall Street Journal, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.12 | 11.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the SEC win the College Football National Championship? · SEC | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 70,181 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the ACC win the College Football National Championship? · ACC | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 38,147 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Big 12 win the College Football National Championship? · Big 12 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 38,024 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Any Other Conference/Independent win the College Football National Championship? · Any Other Conference/Independent | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 36,408 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Big Ten win the College Football National Championship? · Big Ten | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 36,176 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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