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College Football Head-to-Head Regular Season Wins on Kalshi
If the USC college football team records more regular season wins than the Florida college football team in the 2026-27 college football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
23%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
46% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Florida record more regular season wins than USC in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Florida | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 10,684 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M record more regular season wins than Michigan in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Texas A&M | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 5,885 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame record more regular season wins than Miami (FL) in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Notre Dame | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 5,682 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will USC record more regular season wins than Florida in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · USC | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 4,020 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia record more regular season wins than Alabama in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Georgia | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,921 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Texas record more regular season wins than Ohio St. in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Texas | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,889 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) record more regular season wins than Notre Dame in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Miami (FL) | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 1,546 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan record more regular season wins than Texas A&M in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Michigan | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,061 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame record an equal amount of regular season wins as Miami (FL) in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Tie | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 801 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. record more regular season wins than Texas in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Ohio St. | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 800 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon record more regular season wins than Indiana in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Oregon | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 779 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Ole Miss record more regular season wins than LSU in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Ole Miss | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 776 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will LSU record more regular season wins than Ole Miss in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · LSU | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 646 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana record more regular season wins than Oregon in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Indiana | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 453 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama record more regular season wins than Georgia in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Alabama | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 352 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will LSU record an equal amount of regular season wins as Ole Miss in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Tie | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 97 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. record an equal amount of regular season wins as Texas in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 52 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon record an equal amount of regular season wins as Indiana in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Tie | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 31 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia record an equal amount of regular season wins as Alabama in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 18 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will USC record an equal amount of regular season wins as Florida in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 11 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan record an equal amount of regular season wins as Texas A&M in the 2026-27 college football regular season? · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 5 | Feb 02, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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