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College Football Join Conference on Kalshi
If the Washington St. College Football Team joins the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Miami (FL) join the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Miami (FL) | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 2,110 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame join the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Notre Dame | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 716 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. join the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Florida St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 447 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Clemson join the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Clemson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 445 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boise St. join the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · Boise St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 306 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boise St. join the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Boise St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 281 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia Tech join the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Georgia Tech | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 277 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina join the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · North Carolina | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 273 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Clemson join the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Clemson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 244 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina join the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · North Carolina | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 222 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Memphis join the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Memphis | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 181 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. join the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Florida St. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 139 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) join the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Miami (FL) | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 68 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Force join the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · Air Force | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 47 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Army join the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Army | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 46 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. join the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · Florida St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 13 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Washington St. join the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · Washington St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UNLV join the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · UNLV | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will San Diego St. join the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · San Diego St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon St. join the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · Oregon St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Memphis join the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · Memphis | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia join the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Virginia | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will South Florida join the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · South Florida | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tulane join the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Tulane | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame join the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Notre Dame | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Navy join the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Navy | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Colorado St. join the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Colorado St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UConn join the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · UConn | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tulane join the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Tulane | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech join the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Texas Tech | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame join the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Notre Dame | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona St. join the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Arizona St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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