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College Football Pac-12 Championship Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Washington St. qualifies for the 2026 College Football Pac-12 Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.08 | 12.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Texas St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game? · Texas St. | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 10,251 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Diego St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game? · San Diego St. | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 7,470 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Boise St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game? · Boise St. | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7,257 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fresno St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game? · Fresno St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,548 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game? · Oregon St. | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 4,332 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Washington St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game? · Washington St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,118 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colorado St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game? · Colorado St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 718 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game? · Utah St. | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 113 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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