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College Football Playoff Semifinals Qualifiers on Kalshi
If UCLA qualifies for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 51 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LSU qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · LSU | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 482,559 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Ohio St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 33,208 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Texas | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 13,871 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Notre Dame | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 10,164 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Georgia | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 9,413 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Oregon | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 7,758 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Indiana | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 6,514 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Miami (FL) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 6,333 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Michigan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,522 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Alabama | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 4,460 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Texas Tech | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,374 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BYU qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · BYU | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 3,607 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Oklahoma | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,594 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ole Miss qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Ole Miss | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 3,589 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Penn St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,659 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Utah | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,115 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Florida | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 817 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Texas A&M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 784 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Kentucky | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 494 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USC qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · USC | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 450 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · UCLA | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 418 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Tennessee | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 405 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · South Carolina | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 396 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Washington qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Washington | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 380 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Madison qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · James Madison | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 371 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SMU qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · SMU | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 214 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Arkansas | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 166 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Virginia | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Iowa | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 94 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pittsburgh qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Pittsburgh | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 40 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Auburn | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 29 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Clemson qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Clemson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 27 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma St. qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Oklahoma St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 26 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Illinois | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 20 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Florida St. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 11 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Missouri | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 4 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vanderbilt qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Vanderbilt | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia Tech qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Virginia Tech | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will North Texas qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · North Texas | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulane qualify for the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the 2026-27 season? · Tulane | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 51 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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