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College Football Spread on Kalshi
If Virginia Tech wins by more than 7.5 points in the Stanford vs Virginia Tech college football game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 1974 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
52% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah wins by over 2.5 points · Utah wins by over 2.5 points | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 48,680 | Nov 17, 00:30 UTC |
| Indiana wins by over 7.5 points · Indiana wins by over 7.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 19,434 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| LSU wins by over 3.5 points · LSU wins by over 3.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 19,317 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Tennessee wins by over 2.5 points · Tennessee wins by over 2.5 points | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 16,049 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma St. wins by over 3.5 points · Oklahoma St. wins by over 3.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 15,045 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| West Virginia wins by over 2.5 points · West Virginia wins by over 2.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 13,572 | Nov 16, 22:30 UTC |
| Ohio wins by over 1.5 points · Ohio wins by over 1.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 13,053 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Western Michigan wins by over 13.5 points · Western Michigan wins by over 13.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 10,001 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Bowling Green wins by over 5.5 points · Bowling Green wins by over 5.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 9,906 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Colorado St. wins by over 13.5 points · Colorado St. wins by over 13.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,210 | Nov 17, 03:30 UTC |
| Western Michigan wins by over 14.5 points · Western Michigan wins by over 14.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 8,170 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tennessee wins by over 3.5 points · Tennessee wins by over 3.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 8,169 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Ohio St. wins by over 10.5 points · Ohio St. wins by over 10.5 points | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 7,947 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins by over 9.5 points · UCLA wins by over 9.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 7,648 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Florida Atlantic wins by over 14.5 points · Florida Atlantic wins by over 14.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 7,636 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins by over 17.5 points · Texas Tech wins by over 17.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 6,890 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Colorado St. wins by over 11.5 points · Colorado St. wins by over 11.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5,960 | Nov 17, 03:30 UTC |
| Houston wins by over 10.5 points · Houston wins by over 10.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 5,680 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Western Michigan wins by over 6.5 points · Western Michigan wins by over 6.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 5,579 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Western Michigan wins by over 30.5 points · Western Michigan wins by over 30.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 5,404 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Indiana wins by over 17.5 points · Indiana wins by over 17.5 points | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 5,267 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Miami (OH) wins by over 10.5 points · Miami (OH) wins by over 10.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 5,173 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 7.5 points · Oregon wins by over 7.5 points | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 4,712 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Kennesaw St. wins by over 9.5 points · Kennesaw St. wins by over 9.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 4,706 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 10.5 points · Oregon wins by over 10.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,380 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins by over 16.5 points · Texas Tech wins by over 16.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 4,361 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Colorado St. wins by over 14.5 points · Colorado St. wins by over 14.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,323 | Nov 17, 03:30 UTC |
| Rice wins by over 2.5 points · Rice wins by over 2.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,319 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| South Carolina wins by over 7.5 points · South Carolina wins by over 7.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,066 | Nov 17, 00:45 UTC |
| UCLA wins by over 10.5 points · UCLA wins by over 10.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 4,034 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah St. wins by over 1.5 points · Utah St. wins by over 1.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 3,984 | Nov 17, 02:30 UTC |
| Fresno St. wins by over 13.5 points · Fresno St. wins by over 13.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,681 | Nov 16, 21:00 UTC |
| Texas wins by over 14.5 points · Texas wins by over 14.5 points | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3,661 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Ole Miss wins by over 2.5 points · Ole Miss wins by over 2.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 3,641 | Nov 16, 21:15 UTC |
| Ole Miss wins by over 1.5 points · Ole Miss wins by over 1.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 3,640 | Nov 16, 21:15 UTC |
| Indiana wins by over 10.5 points · Indiana wins by over 10.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 3,421 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Air Force wins by over 11.5 points · Air Force wins by over 11.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 3,419 | Nov 17, 00:00 UTC |
| Alabama wins by over 17.5 points · Alabama wins by over 17.5 points | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 3,225 | Nov 16, 17:45 UTC |
| Notre Dame wins by over 30.5 points · Notre Dame wins by over 30.5 points | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 3,160 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins by over 17.5 points · Kansas wins by over 17.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,159 | Nov 16, 22:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 1974 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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