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Team to Make the College Football Playoffs before 2030 on Kalshi
If the Iowa football team qualifies for the College Football Playoffs after Issuance and before the 2030-31 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
75% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nebraska qualify for the CFP after Issuance and before the 2030-31 season? · Nebraska reach the CFP before 2030 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 22,803 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will North Dakota St. qualify for the CFP after Issuance and before the 2030-31 season? · North Dakota St. reach the CFP before 2030 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 17,499 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa qualify for the CFP after Issuance and before the 2030-31 season? · Iowa reach the CFP before 2030 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 15,413 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas qualify for the CFP after Issuance and before the 2030-31 season? · Arkansas reach the CFP before 2030 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 11,971 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas qualify for the CFP after Issuance and before the 2030-31 season? · Kansas reach the CFP before 2030 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 9,494 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will West Virginia qualify for the CFP after Issuance and before the 2030-31 season? · West Virginia reach the CFP before 2030 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 7,970 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulane qualify for the CFP after Issuance and before the 2030-31 season? · Tulane reach the CFP before 2030 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 7,467 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wyoming qualify for the CFP after Issuance and before the 2030-31 season? · Wyoming reach the CFP before 2030 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,906 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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