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College Football AP Poll Top Rank on Kalshi
If West Virginia is ranked top 5 on the College Football AP Poll Final Rankings (expected to be released on Jan 26, 2027) for the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: AP College Football Rankings.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 450 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Purdue be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Purdue | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,530 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Madison be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · James Madison | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 3,086 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football Final AP Poll rankings of the 2026-27 season? · Houston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2,631 | Feb 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baylor be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Baylor | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2,224 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colorado be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Colorado | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 2,046 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will California be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · California | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,982 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Auburn | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,776 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SMU be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · SMU | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,751 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will LSU be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · LSU | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,700 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Texas | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,599 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will TCU be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · TCU | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,567 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Utah | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,543 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Northwestern be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Northwestern | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,535 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Boise St. be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Boise St. | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,498 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Purdue be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Purdue | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,485 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Indiana | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,394 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Michigan | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,387 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Tennessee | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,298 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Wisconsin | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,292 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · UCLA | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,285 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UCF be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · UCF | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,279 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pittsburgh be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Pittsburgh | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,260 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BYU be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · BYU | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,246 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Michigan St. | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,143 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona St. be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Arizona St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,129 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nebraska be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Nebraska | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,068 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (OH) be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football Final AP Poll rankings of the 2026-27 season? · Miami (OH) | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,068 | Feb 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will TCU be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · TCU | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,032 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wake Forest be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Wake Forest | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1,017 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UCF be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · UCF | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 962 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Georgia | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 960 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona St. be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Arizona St. | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 857 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulane be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Tulane | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 851 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · South Carolina | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 848 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas St. be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Kansas St. | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 845 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Maryland be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Maryland | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 843 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ole Miss be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Ole Miss | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 808 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia Tech be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football Final AP Poll rankings of the 2026-27 season? · Georgia Tech | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 807 | Feb 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Alabama | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 752 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia Tech be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)? · Virginia Tech | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 729 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 450 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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