What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 28¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.52.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 29% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 28%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

College Football Player Transfer on Kalshi

If Arch Manning is announced to be joining the University of Southern California college football team after Issuance and before Feb 2, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN, official athletic department announcements from the relevant NCAA institution(s), 247Sports, the NCAA Transfer Portal Database, the Associated Press, On3, CBS Sports, The Athletic.

Market says (typical open contract)

28%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

56% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
28¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.52	29.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Arch Manning to join Georgia before Feb 2, 2027 · Georgia	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	56%	2,953	Feb 09, 15:00 UTC
Arch Manning to join Ole Miss before Feb 2, 2027 · Ole Miss	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	2,621	Feb 09, 15:00 UTC
Arch Manning to stay at Texas before Feb 2, 2027 · Stays at Texas	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	2,240	Feb 09, 15:00 UTC
Arch Manning to declare for the NFL Draft before Feb 2, 2027 · Declare for the Draft	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	1,821	Feb 09, 15:00 UTC
Arch Manning to join Tennessee before Feb 2, 2027 · Tennessee	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	356	Feb 09, 15:00 UTC
Arch Manning to retire or not be enrolled at a DI school before Feb 2, 2027 · Retires / Not enrolled at a DI school	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	73	Feb 09, 15:00 UTC
Arch Manning to join USC before Feb 2, 2027 · USC	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Feb 09, 15:00 UTC
Arch Manning to join LSU before Feb 2, 2027 · LSU	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Feb 09, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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