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Men's College Basketball 2nd Half Winner on Kalshi
If USC wins the 2nd half (including overtime) of the USC vs California men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC wins the 2nd half · USC | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 2nd half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| California wins the 2nd half · California | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 2nd half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Michigan wins the 2nd half · Michigan | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Marquette wins the 2nd half · Marquette | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half · Vanderbilt | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Tie in the 2nd half · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Memphis wins the 2nd half · Memphis | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Kentucky wins the 2nd half · Kentucky | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Tie in the 2nd half · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins the 2nd half · Kansas | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins the 2nd half · Texas Tech | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 2nd half · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 2nd half · Illinois | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 2nd half · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Michigan St. wins the 2nd half · Michigan St. | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Duke wins the 2nd half · Duke | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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